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fridgeracer

why i think physical media will always exist

27 posts in this topic

1. digital = DRM. i.e. you never truly own it. let's say you cheat on 1 game on your steam account and were to get permanently banned. that's it... all your games on there are also inaccessible.

 

2. people don't like or want DRM. whether we buy something digitally or physically, we want to know we own that product under our consumer rights.

 

3. not all consumers will ever be reached without physical copies. some people are poorer than others and can never afford full retail price of a new game or movie. so they buy them pre owned. this is the same in almost every single market in the entire world. someone buys something new... sells it to someone as used for a cheaper price. the person buying is happy they could afford it and the person selling is happy they got rid of it and made some money back.

 

4. currently, companies like sony and microsoft, google play, amazon, and so on are abusing digital sales with high prices. a digital only DRM product should be ALOT cheaper due to those negatives to the consumer, but often prices are the exact same, if not more than the physical copies. steam helps with constant sales and discounts, but in the style of "quick save money and buy it before it's too late". they don't put up a standard price without any sales that's generally cheaper, i.e. if it's not on sale chances are it's the same price as all the other digital platforms.

 

5. gog.com is so big now that they are launching their own dedicated PC / mac (i think so, not sure about mac. lets say computers) client for their games purchase platform, much like steam, except the current trend continues... non DRM games. there's even growing numbers of PC gamers who say they only buy from gog.com because there is no DRM. the plus side of all this is that yes, you can burn the contents onto a disc and have your very own non DRM physical copy of a game. so long as windows is still compatible with it... many decades down the line you could still be able to play this game all thanks to no DRM and physical media.

 

6. retail - not everyone despite the propaganda / horseshit fed to us by news articles and statistics... likes to shop online. plenty of people still to this day want things in the way they bought things 100 or even 200 years ago - you pay some money, you get something in your hands in return. movies, music, and games because of these people are still being sold in stores as physical copies. yes, there's a big market online / digitally, but there's also a big market out on the town. it's not going away any time soon.

 

7. i believe piracy in 1st world developed and rich countries such as US, UK, Japan and so on is on the fall. why is that? well in the UK i am on virgin media and kickass torrents proxy sites have been all blocked. no amount of proxies can be accessed, everything is flagged and blocked. many others have also been blocked. some still do work for other torrent networks, but their time is coming. that leaves you with a choice.... pay for a VPN for £8-10 a month, or buy the movie. either way you are going to spend money, and i would rather buy the movie / game / album than spend money to get it illegally. i have not pirated in over 6 years to general price drops of things on steam and on amazon, but the ones that still don't adopt the right way of life, are soon going to, by force.

 

if anything's going to kill physical copies of media entertainment, it's going to be a shortage of energy / fuel supplies to generate plastic and a world wide depression where factories go bust and logistics cease to a halt and gamers, movie lovers, and music buyers left are rich people and thus the companies making new stuff will resort to doing things online only and the government makes a law to ban the production of plastic. if neither of these 2 things ever happens, i bet 100-200 years from now, if the human race is still alive and this thread is still floating about on the internet that someone in that time would have read this and gone... christ, he was right. i CAN buy die hard 100.1x on a 10K res blu ray disc in a store right now!

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die hard 100.1x on a 10K res blu ray disc

100-200 years later and Bruce Willis will still be John McClane.  I don't know how they kept him alive, but I'm sure he's still a bad ass.

fridgeracer likes this

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100-200 years later and Bruce Willis will still be John McClane.  I don't know how they kept him alive, but I'm sure he's still a bad ass.

james bond is a character played by different actors. john mcclane could fall into this category. nice troll . i did lol. goodnight!

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100-200 years later and Bruce Willis will still be John McClane.  I don't know how they kept him alive, but I'm sure he's still a bad ass.

Obviously they will have cloned him and named the clone John McClane.

In fact, they will be mass produced war units. All wars will be fought by waves of John McClanes fighting other waves of John McClanes.

 

 

To Fridge's point, there is one other possibility for the decline of physical mediums: The lack of brick-and-mortar stores to actually buy them in.

If there's no stores to carry such products, there's no way to get them into the hands of consumers except buying physical copies online, paying for shipping, and waiting for the product to arrive. Or you could just download it in a fraction of the time without paying for shipping.

But aside from that, yes, agreed.

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I disagree, but I am too lazy to come up with a good argument, I can say that 100 years ago people still rode houses in to battle, there was no UN and the idea that someone could wright something and people all around the could read and reply to it in the same day it was written, hell even 20 years ago DOS and floppy disks were used for stuff so 100 years life is going to very different.

Gone too likes this

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People thought monocles would be around for ever too. Artisans never thought they'd be replaced, typewriting was a skill of the future, Wars would all end after the Great War. Predicting the future with absolute certainty is hard and has rarely been done in history so don't be so certain. All signs point to a digital dominant near future, it's already happened on the PC market.

"not everyone despite the propaganda / horseshit fed to us by news articles and statistics..." RPG shops are dying everywhere, Game shops not belonging to a big chain are a rarity, PC exclusive shops are mostly gone, statistics are real stop with the tinfoil hat, no one ever said they were universal either.

"
digital = DRM. i.e. you never truly own it. let's say you cheat on 1 game on your steam account and were to get permanently banned. that's it... all your games on there are also inaccessible." That's a lie, a vac ban only bans you from trading, a few other privileges and online play(not sure if just the game you were banned in or all vac games.) you can always access your games. 

"
 not all consumers will ever be reached without physical copies. some people are poorer than others and can never afford full retail price of a new game or movie." If someone doesn't have a spare 20 dollars he should really be thinking about other things like eating or finding work, but the seasonal sales employed by most digital service providers are more than enough to make up for that.

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As far as companies are going to put out collector's editions with physical extras like statuettes or pocket watches, then Physical copies may be around for good.

 

But then again, they might figure to sell those collector's editions with those physical extras and just give you an unlock code for the media.

 

I got the special edition of Deus Ex Human Revolution, and though it's a physical copy of the game, with the art book and stuff, the installation just gave me the Steam version of the game. Now I don't even need the disc to install or even play the game.

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I think physical media will always be around in some form, but as the mainstream way of distribution, certainly not. Auron's point about predicting the future holds true here, but I'm going to take the risk and say that the internet will continue to be relevant at least for a few decades. It may continue to morph, but it does seem to be one of those revolutionizing inventions that just can't go away, like the telephone. Certainly, today's smartphone is nothing like Bell would have imagined his invention becoming, but that same basic concept is still there. The same basic concept of transporting data, be it digital or perhaps some other form in the future, should stick around.

 

Anyway, back to physical media. I personally haven't bought a disk for four years now. I bought disks before I had access to online distribution; now that I have Steam and GoG, I really don't see a need anymore. Gamestop's PC selection is terrible and Walmart isn't doing a much better job. Talking to my friends, the big thing keeping physical media alive right now in gaming is consoles, but even consoles are shifting to online markets. When internet becomes ubiquitous (which, hey, might not happen if this net neutrality fight loses), it'll be a lot easier to just demand a download. Even so, I suspect that the physical copy will have to remain an option, as until we all get gigabit connections, downloading the 40 gig Watch_Dog's file is going be paaaaaaainful.

 

So, as a supplement sure I can see it still being there, much like how biking has survived alongside the advent of cars. It's still good to get you around town, but ultimately cars are our preferred choice of travel nowadays. Ultimately though, not very good to speculate on the far future in my opinion, as just looking at the evolution of games over video gaming's entire lifetime, we've seen so much massive change in the thirty years its been around that while contemplation on the next thirty is fun and all, it's also kinda hard to actually discuss because one opinion is no more valid than another. From my little pedestal though, I think it'll continue with the status quo, until some new technology comes along to shake things up. That tends to be the safe bet.

Gone too likes this

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 I personally haven't bought a disk for four years now.

Heh, the last physical game I ever bought was the Orange box, never looked back.

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I think the convenience of digital media is still relatively new, and is still growing and changing far too rapidly to really determine what the future holds with any accuracy. 

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We see fads go almost every day. For Example e-books were the big thing, everyone thought they would replace actual books within a few years.

 

Most people I know don't like E-books now, including me. And most prefer an actual book. Obviously games are very different, but I think physical games will be around for a while more.

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With games I like to go to a store to preorder. I am both guaranteed a copy on the release day and get to talk to people about the upcoming releases. Some of which actually know me by name now.

Also with digital copies you can easily fill your console to capacity and have to reinstall a game to play it again if you feel the need in future. My PS3 is so full I honestly don't know what with, I transferred most of my save files to the cloud and delete my older game data fieles but can still only have approx. 3 games installed at a time. With a disc I just open my draw and slide in the game disc.

With movies I'm just not tech savvy enough to build and operate my own server. I have approx. 800+ movies on DVD and 200+ on Bluray. To make shelf space I converted my DVD's to digital and have a media centre of 4x3GB HDD's nearly all full and just my Bluray's on display.

So I physically can't purchase movies as I've no where else to store them short of paying for a second media centre or a server.

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We see fads go almost every day. For Example e-books were the big thing, everyone thought they would replace actual books within a few years.

 

Most people I know don't like E-books now, including me. And most prefer an actual book. Obviously games are very different, but I think physical games will be around for a while more.

Do you remember Mini Disc's :P

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Yeah, physical copies are probably gonna stick around for quite a long while yet.  Not that I'm complaining I do like to have physical copies to add to my collection.

 

Do you remember Mini Disc's :P

I still believe in Laser Discs.

HeroEightyTwo likes this

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We see fads go almost every day. For Example e-books were the big thing, everyone thought they would replace actual books within a few years.

 

Most people I know don't like E-books now, including me. And most prefer an actual book. Obviously games are very different, but I think physical games will be around for a while more.

Oh god I hate paper so much these days... The problem is people think these changes occur in a year when they take decades for the majority of the population to adjust or die*. The difference though is gamers are not(yet) the majority of the world's population(candy crush players not included) so change spreads slightly faster. Steam and the other online stores and clients have been around for a while and consoles are picking up on it.


*I actually have an example, I was just working on my research earlier and Strategy gaming in the 19th century, it took about 30 to 80 years of development for the idea to be completely accepted in the military circles, especially outside of Prussia, because most senior officers didn't approve of the concept for various reasons. Of course one should consider how slower the XIX century was in general but still it's been only 10 years since Half Life 2 released and 9 years since the first third party game sold on Steam truly effectively starting the digital era, it's not that long a time span but it's certainly not a fad.

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We see fads go almost every day. For Example e-books were the big thing, everyone thought they would replace actual books within a few years.

 

Most people I know don't like E-books now, including me. And most prefer an actual book. Obviously games are very different, but I think physical games will be around for a while more.

Going from my personal experience, the problem with e-books is that we still don't have a good paper-like option. I know the Kindles came out with the e-ink and that was pretty fantastic, but there's the problem; it's a Kindle. Why should I carry around both my tablet and my Kindle? It just becomes too cumbersome, so I go for the one with greater functionality and just read little bits off of my tablet. Prolonged exposure really strains my eyes though, so it can't replace a book. The technology simply isn't there yet; I suspect that when our OLED screens or such which the point where you can comfortably stare at them for long periods of time, we'll actually see the switch from paper to electronic. Even then though, when I look at the college homework I've done, it's really helpful to always be able to print out a few cheat sheets, than have to have it up on a device. If they could create a UI as easy to sort through as my stack of reference guides are then yeah I'd switch in an instant.

 

Similarly, I think physical media exists in that state; internet technology, at least here in the US, simply isn't up to spec for the big next-gen games. My seven megabit connection isn't all that bad considering, but it still took all day to download Planetside 2. Even then, I was never tempted to go out and just get it at the store because... I couldn't, actually. My Gamestop doesn't carry PS2 anymore, or basically any other PC game I want. Even if I could, pretty much all of my purchases are through Humble Bundles and Steam sales, something no physical store can get away with. So if I can get along with 7Mb/s, I imagine in the next decade or so when we probably have thirty or forty megabit  (though I'm really hoping for gigabit), should be a lot easier to manage. Really, once we do get to gigabit, the whole affair becomes pointless. People love to talk about the Bill Gates quote and every other visionary who said we'd never need more space than a floppy/CD/DVD, but in Computer Science there does become a point where you have to intentionally be adding space in order to make it more bloated. I just don't foresee terabyte-sized games in the near future. Even with 4K prerendered cinematics, it's gonna be tough. After the huge amount of Steam games I've downloaded, I've still only used about ~560 gigabytes on my terabyte drive. Point being, once gigabit shows up for the common man, that means you can download one gigabyte in eight seconds and a terabyte in about 2 hours 13 minutes. Even if we do see terabyte sized games, which would require a revolution in physical media to actually hold (and petabyte drives for us to store them on xD), 2 hours download time isn't a bad tradeoff for having to drive down to the store and pick it up.

 

Got a bit ramble-y, sorry, it's just a topic that really interests me. Again, don't think it's going totally vanish, because we'll always have collectors editions and such, but it certainly does seem to be out the door.

Gone too likes this

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Or Snake Pliskin will enter in the World Code.

 

Who knows?

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Another reason: Collectors.
There will always be people around who'll be willing to pay a premium for the physical goods.
Look at the Vynils.... should be more than obsolete now, and they still get made and sold.

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The Publisher's are making a huge push for everything to go Digital but whats crazy is they will be the first to go out because we dont buy games made by EA or Activision, we buy them that way because we have to.

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Another reason: Collectors.

There will always be people around who'll be willing to pay a premium for the physical goods.

Look at the Vynils.... should be more than obsolete now, and they still get made and sold.

Yeah, as far as PC Games go, the only reason I buy physical copies are for Collector's Editions. Diablo 3, and Starcraft 2's expansions being the most recent ones. But as I said before, they could easily just give you the premium physical content, and just pack a code for the game with it. With both Starcraft 2 and Diablo 3 (Deus Ex: Human Revolution also an example I gave earlier), once you have the Game Key and put it into Battle.net, those discs are pretty much useless. You can download and install the entire game from Blizzard's service thingy whatever. Even before they came out with that program, they let you download installers for those games to do just that.

 

Though I haven't done that for consoles though. Unless you count the Vita where all my games are digital.

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I tried saying this last night but my brain wasn't working.

 

#1

The Publisher's are hell bent on pushing Digital. They would love nothing more than to make everything go Digital.  The funny thing is once everything does go Digital, They will be the first to go out of business!

 

See, the Gamer is the most educated consumer in the world. We hate the EA's and Activision's of the world but we Love DICE & Treyarch. We buy games from EA & Activision because we have to! But if everything was Digital, why in the world would the Infinity Wards, Treyarchs, Gearbox, DICE need a Publisher? We would prefer to our buys and support go straight to the Developers!

 

#2

Once everything is Digital, shortly there after everything will start to be Pirated. I do not support Piracy, the reason is as I get older I find it easier to just buy what I want then mess around with the headache of Pirating shit. But to be fully honest, if everything goes digital, piracy will become EXTREMELY easy - like music piracy. That and the fact that I am no longer receiving anything tangible in my hand, it's all just "Digital" it won't feel like stealing or pirating is wrong. So although I pirate nothing now, I would have no moral issue Pirating EVERYTHING if everything was Digital.

 

#3

There will be no Quality Control, when everything is Digital, there is no accountability. You won't have Game Stop or Walmart saying "Hey Activision, these last few games suck ass, I have 1.9 Million Dollars in unsold copies, Take them back or apply a credit so I can lower the price and get this shit out of my inventory".

 

Without that balance and check system in place, there will be a glut of shitware like we saw in the 80's that about killed the video game business.

 

So now, everything is being pirated, and 90% of the stuff is shit...even more reason to pirate it! You get burnt once or twice, you aint laying out $40-$60 bucks anymore!

 

Without the ability to trade, rent and return goods, people who buy 6-12 games a year will only be able to support and buy 3-4 games a year!

 

So now we have tons of shitty games, no accountability for quality, everything is being pirated and we have nothing tangible to trade, rent or share and people are buying less and all the major AAA Publisher's have gone out of business!

 

#4

After this apocalypse, what few if any Publisher's survive (Nintendo) will actually revert back to physichal media. Most likely in the form of Cartidges!!!! To stem the Piracy and the losses and controll their goods.

 

Then the Industry will rebound from there and well go 30 years and repeat the cycle again like that shit in the Matrix movies lol.

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After this apocalypse, what few if any Publisher's survive (Nintendo) will actually revert back to physichal media. Most likely in the form of Cartidges!!!! To stem the Piracy and the losses and controll their goods.

 

Then the Industry will rebound from there and well go 30 years and repeat the cycle again like that shit in the Matrix movies lol.

The war for the seal will begin anew and all the bloodshed and tyranny with it.  The spiral is unending. nintendo-quality-of-assurance-seal.jpg  As I type this I suddenly realize how awesome it would be if Koe Tecmo made a Dynasty Warriors inspired game called console warriors.  Pick your faction Nintendo, Sega, Sony, Xbox, Atari, and whoever else.  Your character would be the specific system...oh god I want it so much.

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Another point I want to make is I believe there is something I call the "Digital Threshold".

 

See, no one seems to give two fucks if the .99 cent song they bought two years ago goes away, or the $1.99 app....or the $2.99 thing or the $3.99 or $4.99.

 

BUT, When you start going into the $14.99, $19.99, $29.99, $39.99, $59.99!!!! Then all the sudden everything changes. If something happens with a Digital Movie that costs you $19.99...well, that shit don't flush! Or you delete something and can;t get it back, Or lose access to something because it's no longer supported. It's a big f'n deal. Start throwing $60.00 games into teh mix and all hell is going to break loose.

 

It will be very interesting how Microsoft handles all of the X360 Digital stuff they hav sold. They are not going to support X360 "Live" forever. There seems to be no plan or information or willingness to make in compatible with the XONE "Live". Well, I and millions of others have substntial financial investments in X360 Live. I have probably spent $4,000.00 or so on X360 Live Digital Goods....So if I lose it, There will be a Digital revolt from consumers!

 

Even if I never play it, and a few years from now It looks like NES Games compared to what is being released...it's the princible of the matter. I didn;t lease it, I didn;t rent it, I purchased it but the reality of all of this Digital Nonsense, although we "Bought" it and we paid full retail for it, If you read the fine print....you do not OWN a single Digital Item you have ever bought. Not a game, a map pack, a movie, a song. No where, anywhere in any agreement does it gaurantee you access for it.

 

Reality is , all Digital is a "Lease". Yet they puporsely Market it as "Buy This Game" or "Own this Game"....but according to the fine print, It's all technichally a lease similar to a car and that needs to change. Car dealers can't say you can own a Car for $350.00 a month. They have to tell you up front even in their advertising if that price is reflective of a Pucrhase Price or if it is a Lease Price.

 

But if they told you the truth, that you are paying full retail and it is a lease and you do not own it...well, no one would Digitally Purchase anything!

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1. they need a publisher because the publisher is the one paying them to get the game made. Unless everyone crowd funds every game, publishers will still be in power.

2. everything is already pirated. making it easy to get actually reduces piracy. 

3. they don't need walmart to tell them the game didn't sell. They can just look at their own sales numbers. If the game sucks they won't make money on it, simple. 2nd hand sales is not a point of consideration since the money does not actually go to the companies. Family sharing is already in beta on steam and you can assume it will be even more common in the future.

4. depends on the type of apocalypse. If it's alien invasion we may be able to steal alien tech.

5. the whole not owning digital items thing is being blown out of proportion. How many people actually go back to their old games and play them on their original devices? May be some retro game enthusiasts will do that regularly, or may be some people will want to play one or two favorites. I linked Diablo2 to my Blizzard account and I can still download it and play it. That game's older than a lot of gamers. Also, physical copies do not actually continue to work indefinitely. I have vhs and cartridges that stopped working for no reason, or PC games that don't run on modern systems. As long as the companies support their games for a reasonable length of time there is no problems.

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Also, publishers are the ones paying licencing fees to consoles, and most own their developing studios, so they might not go away.

As mentioned above, higher purchase capacity and easier access makes piracy irrelevant.
With so many discounts, sales, ridiculously cheap bundles and giveaways, "saving" 5-15 bucks really doesn't seem like a huge deal.
Even more, the push of indies with cheaper games, can pull overall prices lower due to competence.
Also, services like Steam perform at least as well as torrent, and there is no pressure for ISPs to block them, as they're 100% legal.
Yes, piracy will always exist, but there'll be less reasons to resort to it or condone its practices.

I still remember when I couldn't play Frogger or Alleycat or Tapper after getting a new color screen for my pc :(

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